Election Sweepstake!

29 April 2005

Yesterday I was looking around the web, trying to find out if anyone was running a sweepstake on the election – not for profit, “just a bit of fun”, as Peter Snow might say. I couldn’t. So I made one. The qwghlm.co.uk election sweepstake is your chance to impress everyone else – pick the number of seats that you think Labour will win by. Whoever gets it right will be rightly lorded as all-seeing and all-powerful, and you will have the right to brag about it on your blog for all eternity. There’s no actual prize as of yet, though I might well toss one in if enough people join in.

The code is a bit rough and ready so bear with it if it is buggy in any way. And please no spam, I’ll notice it and then block your IP.

Minor update: 12 hours in, it seems that most of the bets are between 40 and 80, even though most opinion polls have Labour consistently in three figures… do we know better than they do?


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Election Sweepstake by Scottish Blogger

Excerpt: “Edinburgh blogger Chris Applegate (the one that brought you those flash videos recently) of qwghlm.co.uk blog has started an Election Majority Sweepstake.

I bet on a Labour Majority of 91.

The median bet so far is 74, which is very, very close to the Balance of Money Prediction (currently at Lab Maj: 78), derived from the spread-betting markets, over at… “

I think a lot of people are thinking that the swing in marginals will be much higher than the swing nationwide (which I think some polling data backs up – anybody got some actual figures for that, as opposed to me just repeating what some guy told me down the pub?). Certainly, my bet (56) was based on a nationwide swing of about 2 or 3%, but a lot more in the seats that matter.

Of course, bigger swings in marginals depends largely on the voters’ perception of what “marginal” is – if the national polls don’t show any real threat to Labour, it could be a self-fulfiling prophecy, as people think there’s no point trying to vote a Labour MP out.