Up to a point. However, modern factory farming methods increase the opportunities for (a) diseases to become pandemic in animals, and (b) for the virus to mutate and recombine with other viruses.

In 1968, when the most recent influenza pandemic occurred, the virus emerged in a China that had a human population of 790 million, a pig population of 5.2 million, and a poultry population of 12.3 million; today, these populations number 1.3 billion, 508 million, and 13 billion, respectively (source). In much of SE Asia, the poultry density is 250,000 per square kilometre.

Poultry farmers have every right to panic, becuse this virus could easily wipe out their entire livelihood; it’s bloody lethal to chickens.

The chances of avian flu developing a human-transmissible form is 100%. It’s not a “big if” – it’s not even an “if”. The problem is, we have absolutely no way of knowing when – this year, next year or in fifty years. It’s happened before and happens every so often – we are “due” another one, but one can’t usefully interpret the statistics in that way really. This means that preparing for it is hard – because it might not happen for decades. We’d better be bloody ready when it happens though – last time it killed millions.

I thought the “exclusion zones” in Eastern Scotland are a bit silly, too – they go all the way up north almost as far as Aberdeen, but don’t include anywhere south of the infamous Dead Swan at all.

Well, that intelligent design thing – it’s not all bad. You have to admit that it has certain ‘poultry and fate’-related good points…

My own motivation for continuing to eat chicken is that it tastes really good. I’ve pretty much had enough of being told what’s safe and not safe for me to eat, on the basis of 1) a considerable amount of bad science and b) the inability of journalists to see how miniscule the probability of dying actually is . Besides, I’m a long way from Fife. Ho-hum.