Winners and winners
May 6th, 2005Having returned to the land of the living after six hours’ sleep, it looks like business as usual. The Lib Dems have lost a couple more seats to the Tories, Labour still haven’t gained a single seat (you’d think they might pick up the odd anomalous one or two, but no). They now stand on 353 seats - that’s a majority of 60. 622 of the seats declared, excluding the 18 seats in Northern Ireland that means we’re only waiting on 6 more to come in.
Looking at the Lib Dems’ targets - although they have won seats and got a bigger share of the vote - most of the increase in the vote was in Labour seats, while most of their targets looked to be Conservative. They have taken very few off the Tories - many of them have in fact swung the other way. Their current total of 61 seats, while a gain of 10 on 2001, is only 7 more than the 54 they had when Parliament dissolved. While that’s still positive that’s not the massive breakthrough we expected; I would be pleased, but not overjoyed if I were a Lib Dem supporter.
The main other winners out of this are the Conservatives, who have won some seats, and achieved swings in many others to create a solid base to build on for 2009/10. Another winner, at least on their own terms, is Respect. Yes, they’re a jumped-up party who will probably not be around in five years’ time, but they got what they came for, which was Galloway’s win in Bethnal Green. Sadly, what’s even worse is that the “threat” they pose, which extends to little more than areas with a significant Muslim vote (and even then, they only recorded 20% of the vote in West Ham and East Ham), which is hyped by both themselves and the pro-war left, will now seem even greater. Only 68,000 people voted for them nationwide, which isn’t that much more than the 57,000 who voted Socialist Alliance in 2001. Meanwhile, off everyone else’s radar, the BNP have managed to quadruple their nationwide vote - nearly 200,000 votes this time compared to 47,000 in 2001.
May 6th, 2005 at 13:55:08
I think we’re at a turning point now. The Tories have now remembered how to win seats, the Lib Dems have established themselves as the slowly-but-surely party and Labour has been reminded it’s not invulnerable. All of these may have considerable influence on how politics proceeds in the next four to five years. In a sense, the 90s have finally ended.
May 6th, 2005 at 14:58:03
I think the BNP and (to a lesser extent) UKIP are the scary factors in this election. I can think of a few seats (without checking facts) that if the voters for those two parties had voted conservative instead then the Tories would have won the seat. The sheer numbers of far-right voters is going to lead to one of two scenarios.
1) The Tories take another swing to the right to encroach on them, drawing more attention and creating undue attention on the wrong issues.
2 - and far worse) Someone attempts to clamp down on far-right parties, leading to a potential limiting of “free-speech”.
Given that I expect Labour to take a left-ward swing now (and especially once Blair retires) there’s going to be a big centre-gulf in the near future (all IMO, of course)
May 7th, 2005 at 04:23:17
The pro-war left? I tremble at the thought of them.